Hydroclimatic corridors and cultural interactions in the diffusion and transformation of Andronovo traditions in Bronze Age Xinjiang, Northwest China

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The Andronovo culture constitutes a representative Bronze Age steppe cultural complex in Central Asia. Although substantial archaeological evidence has demonstrated its presence and expansion in Xinjiang, its precise chronological framework, diffusion mechanisms, and broader environmental context remain insufficiently and systematically explored. In this study, we compiled a radiocarbon ( 14 C) dataset from archaeological sites associated with Andronovo cultural remains in Xinjiang. We applied summed probability distribution (SPD) analysis to reconstruct the temporal dynamics and dispersal trajectories of Andronovo cultural expansion in the region. In parallel, we synthesized multiple paleoenvironmental records from Xinjiang to reconstruct the climatic and environmental conditions during the period of cultural transmission. By integrating these results with previously published archaeological evidence, we further examined the mechanisms underlying the expansion and subsequent decline of the Andronovo culture in Xinjiang from a human–environment interaction perspective. The results indicate that around 1900 cal BC, the Andronovo populations migrated from Central Asia into western Xinjiang and gradually expanded eastward through oasis corridors along the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains. After approximately 1300 cal BC, the cultural influence of the Andronovo tradition in Xinjiang began to decline. Between 2000 and 1500 cal BC, a generally warm and humid climate provided favorable environmental conditions that facilitated the introduction and expansion of the culture. However, during 1500–1300 cal BC, a shift toward cooler conditions likely intensified subsistence pressures, thereby constraining further cultural development and diffusion. Overall, the spread, development, and eventual decline of the Andronovo culture in Xinjiang resulted from the combined influence of environmental and socio-cultural factors. Climatic change acted primarily as an external forcing mechanism, whereas internal social dynamics and inter-cultural interactions served as the primary drivers. Ultimately, the Andronovo cultural complex in the region appears to have gradually declined, likely through processes of cultural integration and assimilation with surrounding cultural traditions.