From Environmental Change to Ecological Response: A Narrative Review of Modelling Frameworks for Sustainable Urban Stream Management

Environmental alterations arising from restoration, land-use modification, and climate change alter the physical and chemical conditions of freshwater ecosystems, ultimately driving ecological responses. Yet, a wide range of modelling frameworks has been developed that differ substantially in their ecological resolution, data requirements, and management applications. Addressing the lack of a synthesis of these frameworks for urban stream management, this narrative review analyses modelling approaches for predicting ecological responses in freshwater ecosystems and their applicability to urban stream management. The reviewed frameworks are organised according to increasing ecological detail of modelling outputs, from habitat models to approaches predicting biotic indicators, community composition, and mechanistic ecological processes. For each modelling framework, the ecological questions addressed, underlying assumptions, required data, strengths, limitations, and representative applications are examined. The review identifies a clear trade-off between ecological resolution and the data and ecological knowledge required for model development, as well as transferability. It also highlights research gaps, including the limited integration of hydrology, hydraulics, water quality, and geomorphology, the propagation of uncertainty across modelling cascades, and the scarcity of modelling applications targeting urban streams. The review demonstrates that different modelling approaches address complementary ecological questions and should be selected according to the management objective, available information, and decision context. Combining complementary approaches can help link environmental processes with ecologically meaningful predictions, supporting restoration planning, evaluation of management alternatives, and the long-term ecological sustainability of urban streams.