Housing market functioning and emergency housing governance under armed conflict: descriptive evidence from Iran, 2025–2026

Housing market activity in Tehran declined considerably during the two armed conflicts with Israel and the United States in 2025 and 2026. However, nominal asking prices declined briefly and then recovered quickly. This pattern and the related changes in the governance of Tehran’s housing market are the focus of our investigation. We use an event-centred descriptive case-study design. Our evidence is based on legal and administrative records, government statements, media reports in Persian and English, online listings, and market reports available through mid-August 2026. Documented housing transactions declined significantly during the 12-Day War in 2025. During the 40-Day War in 2026, daily online listings declined from more than 8,000 to about 500. Selected asking-price observations indicate declines around both conflicts followed by recoveries, although these observations cannot establish changes in realized prices or demand. Public authorities also reported temporary accommodation, repairs, accelerated permits, project-specific density incentives, lease extensions, and shelter planning. The evidence shows that implementation was more successful for temporary accommodation and minor repairs to damaged buildings. Evidence on actual permit processing and shelter delivery remains limited. The Tehran case shows how posted prices can rebound despite impaired market functioning and why emergency measures should be assessed by implementation status.