A resilient-sustainable assessment framework for prioritization of generation expansion projects

Renewable-integrated generation expansion requires project prioritization that recognizes interdependent resilient-sustainable drivers under disruption. Existing approaches treat effective criteria as independent or retain fixed importance structures, limiting their ability to connect causal interdependence, disruption severity, vulnerability, and final project priority. This study develops a novel assessment framework called Scenario-Adjusted Resilient-Sustainable Assessment and Comprehensive Distance-Based Ranking (SARSA-COBRA) to address this gap. Its central innovation is a causal-to-priority mechanism that converts the interdependent structure of resilient-sustainable variables into coalition-based marginal contributions. Single-Valued Neutrosophic DEMATEL identifies the causal structure, and the proposed Causal-Synergy Shapley Game transforms it into weights reflecting systemic prominence, causal dominance, and internal causal synergy. Scenario activation makes these contributions responsive to Normal, Mild, Moderate, and Severe disruption conditions. The Integrated Power System Resilience and Vulnerability Index are combined with capital cost and renewable share through the COBRA method to prioritize predefined generation expansion projects. Applied to 74 alternatives in Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran, the framework shows that excluding sustainability contributions increases apparent resilience by 9.88% and vulnerability by 20.26%. Only 20% of the top-ten performance-ranked alternatives remain in the COBRA-prioritized expansion projects. The framework supports planning-oriented prioritization by jointly considering disruption-responsive performance, severe-stress vulnerability, investment burden, and renewable contribution.