Urban Sociology of Municipal Solid Waste Collection Fee Prepayment Windows and Household Segregation Compliance in Kampala's Parish Wards: A Regression Discontinuity of Prepayment Deadlines

Municipal solid waste collection in Kampala's parish wards depends on household prepayment of collection fees, yet compliance with source-segregation rules is unevenly distributed across the deadline cycle. The design is specified for a running variable measured in days from the deadline, with a treatment indicator for households that have prepaid before the cut-off and a compliance outcome drawn from ward-level inspection records. Because no primary data were collected for this run, the paper is framed as a methodological and theoretical contribution: it specifies the estimand, the identifying assumptions, the bandwidth and polynomial choices, the manipulation and sorting threats, and the interpretation of the local average treatment effect at the deadline. The argument is that prepayment deadlines are not merely administrative instruments but sociological thresholds that reorganise the relationship between fee payment, service entitlement and the moral economy of waste separation. The design is calibrated against the DHS Program indicator 'HIV test for women: Absent at the time of blood collection: Interviewed' (HA_CHVT_W_ABI), 28 African countries, 2003-2025, 55 country-survey observations, mean 0.967, standard deviation 1.488, minimum Togo 0.00, maximum South Africa 7.30, used here only to illustrate the distributional properties that a comparable ward-level indicator would need to exhibit.