Low-altitude economy, vertical spatial transformation and pathways for pollution and carbon emission reduction: policy and social evidence from Chinese provinces

As an emerging industry paradigm, the alignment between policy regulation of the low-altitude economy and regional achievements in pollution and carbon emission reduction constitutes a critical issue for promoting industrial green transformation and achieving sustainable development. Using panel data from 28 Chinese provinces over the period 2008–2023, this study systematically examines the nonlinear impact of low-altitude economic policy intensity on regional pollution and carbon emission reduction and its underlying mechanisms. Additionally, it analyzes the driving effects of the low-altitude economy on spatial transformation from pathway restructuring, spatial asymmetry, and risk resonance. The findings reveal that:(1) The results indicate that the impact of low-altitude economy policy intensity on pollution and carbon emission levels exhibits a nonlinear pattern, an estimated empirical transition point of approximately 2.896. (2) Low-altitude economy policy intensity first weakens and then strengthens environmental regulation, while its promoting effect on green innovation gradually diminishes, thereby shaping its pollution and carbon emission reduction effects. (3) A stronger low-altitude airspace flight foundation accelerates the crossing of the turning point and strengthens environmental benefits. (4) The spatial effects are uneven. Provinces such as Sichuan, Jilin, Shaanxi, and Zhejiang exhibit heterogeneous transitions in the marginal environmental effects of low-altitude economy development during key development stages. (5) Spatial transformation is asymmetric, with stronger pollution and carbon reduction effects in regions with better ecological endowments or higher climate risk exposure. (6) Public attention to the low-altitude economy and carbon market returns exhibit a negative risk resonance over short-to-medium-term horizons (100–150 days; 12–24 cycles), indicating time-scale dependence. Overall, the results reveal stage-dependent and spatially differentiated environmental consequences of the low-altitude economy, providing new evidence for understanding the carbon-management implications of emerging spatial economic activities.