Cocoa agro‐ecosystems are not ecological dead ends: evidence of substantial tree regeneration potential

Introduction Increasing tree cover in cocoa agro‐ecosystems is central to sustainability and climate initiatives: shade trees buffer the heat and water deficits that limit yields, and in formerly forested West Africa they are now the main tree cover outside protected areas. Yet the transition rests largely on planting, and natural regeneration potential remains unquantified. Objectives We quantified that potential across cocoa agro‐ecosystems and asked which environmental and management conditions govern its density and diversity. Methods Tree regeneration was surveyed in 145 cocoa fields spanning gradients of soil, field history and structure, landscape, and climate. Bayesian hierarchical models identified the drivers of regeneration density and of Shannon diversity of order 1; Self‐Organizing Maps grouped species with similar responses. Results Regeneration occurred in all 145 fields, conservatively at least 286 seedlings/ha. Density increased most consistently with the density of associated trees, which are seed sources and microclimate buffers, and probably in older fields and on former forest land. Diversity was likewise governed by associated tree diversity, with weaker positive contributions of field age, temperature, and forest cover. Four species groups emerged, contrasting in their dependence on conspecific adults, forest cover, and climate. Conclusions Cocoa agro‐ecosystems are not ecological dead ends but retain substantial regeneration potential, governed at the field scale, above all by the associated tree layer already present. The focus on planting overlooks both this capacity and the information needed to target restoration.