Export Competitiveness of Peruvian Andean Grains: Structural Dynamics and Emerging Water-Sustainability Considerations, 2015–2024

Quinoa, kiwicha and cañihua are strategic Andean grains for Peru, yet whether Peru’s revealed comparative advantage in them has translated into export performance remains poorly documented. Using official MINCETUR/SUNAT and International Trade Centre data for 2015–2024 (ten annual observations), this study applies a deliberately descriptive, historical design based on compound annual growth rates (CAGR), historically delimited sub-periods, volatility measures, unit values and the revealed comparative advantage indices RCA and ARCA. Quinoa export volume grew at a CAGR of 2.96%, but growth slowed from 12.0% per year in 2015–2017 to 0.5% per year in 2017–2024, while its unit value fell by 28.3% and its export value remained below the 2015 level. Kiwicha and cañihua showed rising RCA (+40.2% and +70.0%) but very volatile exports (standard deviation of annual growth of 52.3 and 39.5 percentage points) and falling unit values. In all three grains, stable or rising revealed specialisation coexisted with declining export value, a pattern consistent with a ‘comparative advantage trap’. Single-site evidence from Puno on the blue water footprint is treated as exploratory. Comparative advantage alone has not secured export competitiveness; differentiation, market diversification and better data are needed.