Structural Credibility of Poverty Reduction Pathways in Sub‐Saharan Africa Under the United Nations 2030 Agenda and Africa Agenda 2063

Poverty reduction remains a core test of sustainable development, yet declining headcount rates do not necessarily indicate credible progress toward time‐bound development commitments. I examine poverty reduction pathways in 48 Sub‐Saharan African countries during 2013 to 2023, adapting the first‐decade benchmark under Agenda 2063 of a 30% relative reduction to the $2.15 international poverty line in 2017 PPP. The analysis integrates poverty levels, demographic burden, temporal patterns, poverty depth and severity, and mean‐median welfare balance. Countries are classified into five pathways: structurally credible progress, fragile but target‐consistent progress, slow progress, unequal welfare, and entrenched or deteriorating poverty. A total of 16 countries met the adapted benchmark, while structurally credible reduction was limited to four. Other benchmark‐consistent countries showed greater temporal variation and reversals. In several countries, poverty rates declined while the number of poor people increased. These findings distinguish reaching a numerical benchmark from reducing poverty across its different dimensions. Credible progress requires declining poverty rates to be accompanied by fewer people living in poverty, low poverty depth and severity, and a consistent downward trajectory.