Climate Variability Along the Northern Coast of Senegal: Analysis of Trends, Anomalies and Breaks at the Stations of Thies, Louga and Saint-louis (1994-2024)

The northern coast of Senegal, located on the western edge of the Sahel, is characterized by high climate variability, the repercussions of which directly affect the region's socio-economic activities, particularly market gardening in the Niayes area. This study aims to analyze the variability of rainfall and temperatures at the Thies, Louga, and Saint-Louis weather stations over the period 1994-2024, through the study of temporal trends, interannual anomalies, and breaks in the climate series. The data, provided by the National Civil Aviation and Meteorology Agency (ANACIM), were processed using the Mann-Kendall test, the Sen slope test, and the Pettitt test. The results reveal a rainfall gradient decreasing from south to north, with average rainfall decreasing from 474.3 mm in Thies to 289.0 mm in Saint-Louis, and a reverse temperature gradient, with the Louga station recording the highest temperatures. Trend analysis reveals a significant increase in rainfall and temperatures in Louga, a significant but more limited warming in Thies (minimum and average temperatures), and the absence of a significant trend in Saint-Louis. The Pettitt test reveals primarily thermal breaks, concentrated between 2009 and 2016 in Louga and Thies, with no break detected in Saint-Louis. These results reflect a marked spatial differentiation of climate change along the northern Senegalese coast, likely linked to the moderating effect of the Atlantic Ocean, and underscore the need for continuous climate monitoring to anticipate impacts on water resources and agricultural activities in the region.