Why Voters Defy Party Elites in Electoral System Referendums: Nevada Question 3 in 2022 and 2024

Electoral system reforms are rare events. Given the lack of incentives for governments to overhaul the system that brought them to power, the popular vote constitutes a possible yet arduous pathway for change. While scholars have focused on the effects of novel systems in the United States, the limited research on electoral system referendums has overwhelmingly centered on voters’ dependence on partisan elite cues. However, these party-centric explanations cannot explain why voters sometimes defy their parties’ stated position, as observed in Nevada Question 3: In 2022, Nevadan voters approved election system reform, specifically the proposal for a Top-Five RCV system, despite multipartisan opposition, but ultimately rejected it in the 2024 confirmation vote. A mixed-method analysis finds shifts in partisan vote behavior as the defining determinant of the measure’s failure. While registered Republicans opposed and Nonpartisan registrants consistently supported Question 3 in both years, Democratic registrant support was substantial in 2022 but significantly declined in 2024, leading to its rejection. Findings suggest that partisan voters might defy party elites in weak cue and high grassroots-engagement environments if underlying normative evaluations deeply align with the reform’s goals (2022-Democrats). They might remain reform-anchored even in strong cue cycles, though the absence of grassroots engagement enables parties to dislodge voters that lack normative commitment to the reform (2024-Democrats). High Q3-support from Nonpartisan registrants in both years indicates that groups who view themselves as status-quo losers are likeliest to support reform at the ballot box irrespective of partisan cue visibility.