Climate change and predictions of future distributions of Macaronesian Sideritis L. (Lamiaceae): a preliminary assessment

Sideritis L. (Lamiaceae) have 23 species in the Macaronesian archipelagoes of Madeira and the Canary Islands and represent one of the most spectacular species radiations in these islands. Like their more familiar Pacific island counterparts, Macaronesian Sideritis are highly diverse, both morphologically and ecologically, and they bear little resemblance to their continental relatives. Like other Macaronesian endemics, these species are subject to threats posed by land use and climate change. The goal of this project was to use species distribution and climate modeling to estimate effects of predicted climate change on distribution of Sideritis populations. In general, scenarios predict a decrease in the area occupied by most of the species, with up to 11 species predicted to undergo extinction by 2080. Our study suggests that Macaronesian Sideritis will experience a high level of instability in the near future, a result which will likely impact many other Macaronesian endemics.