Rapid assessment of post-disaster business visitation recovery and its evolving drivers using mobile phone location data

Revealing spatial and temporal dynamics of foot-traffic-based business recovery after extreme weather events remains a critical but understudied aspect of post-disaster resilience. This study examines post-disaster foot-traffic recovery patterns and their associated drivers in the Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area following Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Using cellphone location-based foot traffic data, we track daily visits to 10,971 customer-facing retail and service businesses across multiple sectors. A recovery index is developed to quantify the number of days required for businesses to return to at least 80% of pre-storm foot traffic levels. Recovery is evaluated across four post-disaster periods (2-, 5-, 7-, and 10-days) to capture temporal variation in recovery behaviour. Both cumulative and non-cumulative probit regression models are applied to identify factors influencing early and delayed recovery. Explanatory variables include business characteristics, neighbourhood socio-demographic and housing conditions, disaster-related stressors, and a lagged spatial association indicator capturing the recovery status of nearby businesses. Results show that early recovery (2–5 days) was primarily constrained by disaster-related stressors and socio-demographic vulnerability. Small and medium-sized businesses and essential sectors, particularly grocery and health services, recovered more quickly, while the lagged spatial association significantly increased recovery likelihood. In contrast, later recovery (7–10 days) was more strongly associated with institutional and internal business factors, as the influence of disaster stressors and the lagged spatial association declined. Overall, the findings highlight the time-dependent and spatially heterogeneous nature of post-disaster foot-traffic recovery and demonstrate the importance of temporally sensitive, spatially targeted policies to support equitable and efficient recovery following extreme weather events.