A flight-level assessment of tourism aviation emissions and carbon-pricing impacts in the Canary Islands

Air transport is the most carbon-intensive component of the tourism bundle and is indispensable for remote island destinations lacking alternative international connectivity. In the Canary Islands, where tourism accounts for around one-third of regional GDP, aviation carbon pricing creates a transition challenge for climate policy. This study estimates round-trip emissions from tourism-related aviation to the Canary Islands over 2010–2021 using flight-level route, aircraft and occupancy data. EU carbon prices and climate-damage estimates are translated into origin-specific travel-cost increases. Assuming these costs are passed on to travellers, we estimate tourism-demand changes and use a regional input–output model to trace effects on regional value added. Results reveal an efficiency paradox: emissions per aircraft and passenger declined, but aggregate emissions increased as tourism expanded. Replacing the observed fleet with the most efficient widely used aircraft would reduce emissions by 14.6%, showing that fleet renewal alone is insufficient. Under the main case, with a moderate demand response, historical carbon-price benchmarks generate limited regional effects, whereas higher damage-based valuations imply greater adjustment. Under the more responsive demand scenario, tourism demand falls by up to 29.4%, and the regional and accommodation-sector value added by up to 5% and 24.9%, respectively. These results provide the flight-level empirical baseline that destination-level climate governance currently lacks for its dominant emission source. These estimates capture transition-related economic exposure, not the net economic effect of climate mitigation. They exclude physical and economic climate damages to the Canary Islands and therefore do not imply that mitigation is costlier than inaction.