Administrative infrastructure and procurement competition: evidence from the U.S. supplier-ID transition

This study examines how a digital administrative transition affects supplier eligibility and procurement competition. On 4 April 2022, the U.S. federal government replaced the DUNS identifier with the Unique Entity Identifier and introduced a new entity-validation process. We link predetermined registration-expiration dates to subsequent supplier histories, solicitations, and contract awards. A local discontinuity design retains expiration dates recorded before the transition, including for suppliers subsequently receiving administrative extensions. Suppliers scheduled to expire just after the cut-off were 12.5% points more likely to become inactive within 30 days, accumulated 7.4 additional inactive days over 60 days, and were 3.4% points less likely to obtain a contract within 180 days. Greater market exposure to post-transition renewals is associated with fewer offers, more single bidding, greater incumbent advantage, and higher prices for standardized products. The competition effect is stronger in markets dependent on small suppliers and weaker in markets with deeper historical supplier pools. These findings connect the continuity of administrative eligibility to bidder participation and the terms obtained by public buyers.