Do Climate Risks Precede Climate Communication? Global Evidence From Central Banks

Climate change increasingly intersects with central bank mandates through macroeconomic volatility, financial stability, and systemic risk. This study examines whether physical climate vulnerability, institutional readiness, and domestic climate‐policy intensity shape climate‐related central bank communication using a global panel of central bank speeches from 1996 to 2024. The results show that greater climate vulnerability and stronger climate‐policy intensity are associated with higher subsequent climate discourse, while institutional readiness is also positively related to communication in several specifications. The effect of vulnerability is strongest among central banks that already communicate more intensively about climate issues. Predictive tests further indicate temporal ordering from vulnerability to climate discourse, with weaker evidence that communication precedes subsequent policy development. A supplementary Paris Agreement analysis shows that climate communication increased after 2016 across vulnerability groups, but more rapidly among low‐ and medium‐vulnerability countries. The findings suggest that central bank climate communication responds to climate‐related exposure, while its intensity also depends on institutional readiness and the broader policy environment.