Public Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Assessing the Sustainability of Government Borrowing (2008–2024)

This study examined public debt and economic growth in Nigeria, with emphasis on the sustainability of government borrowing from 2008 to 2024. Specifically, the study examined the effect of public debt on economic growth, determined the effect of domestic debt on economic growth, and assessed the sustainability of government borrowing in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted using annual secondary time-series data covering 17 observations from 2008 to 2024. Data were obtained principally from the Debt Management Office (DMO) and World Bank. The study did not involve human respondents or a survey instrument; rather, published macroeconomic data were used. Descriptive and trend analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit-root testing and structural-break-adjusted regression analysis were employed. The analyses were conducted using EViews, with regression results presented through model summary, ANOVA and coefficient statistics. The findings revealed that changes in public debt-to-GDP had a negative but statistically insignificant effect on changes in real GDP growth (B = -0.456, p = .222), while changes in domestic debt-to-GDP also had a negative but statistically insignificant effect (B = -0.360, p = .361). The sustainability assessment showed that debt-to-GDP increased from 14.5% in 2015 to 42.3% in 2024, while debt service-to-revenue reached 123% in 2018 and 101% in 2022 before declining to 38% in 2024. The study concludes that although debt effects on growth were statistically insignificant, the rising debt burden created considerable fiscal pressure. It recommends stronger borrowing discipline, improved domestic revenue mobilisation and more efficient debt management