Financial viability and investment risk of medium-scale tiger nut ( Cyperus esculentus L.) milk processing in Ghana: a Free Cash Flow analysis with econometric validation

Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus L.) milk processing represents a critical investment opportunity for achieving food system transformation and rural industrialisation in sub-Saharan Africa, yet investment decisions remain hampered by the absence of rigorous financial benchmarks calibrated to current market conditions. This study addresses that gap by evaluating the financial viability and investment risk of a prototype medium-scale tiger nut milk processing enterprise in Techiman, Bono East Region, Ghana. Applying Free Cash Flow (FCF) methodology, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period, benefit-cost ratio (BCR), break-even analysis, and sensitivity analysis at a 25% pre-tax discount rate to primary data from 45 processors, 12 suppliers, 18 market vendors, and 10 key informants. The enterprise is financially viable with a strong positive NPV at a 25% discount rate, remaining viable even under the extreme combined adverse scenario. Econometric validation confirms that selling price is the dominant investment risk driver, outweighing raw material cost risk by a factor of approximately eight. Development finance institutions should classify medium-scale tiger nut processing as bankable and prioritise market access over supply-side interventions.