Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Heat Islands and Sustainable Urban Development in a Rapidly Urbanizing Tropical City

Rapid urbanization in tropical cities is intensifying surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects, posing significant challenges for sustainable urban planning. Hence, the present study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) and its relationship with vegetation and built-up indices in Raipur district, India, between 2015 and 2025. The multi-temporal Landsat imagery processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to derive normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), and LST, followed by SUHI intensity assessment and correlation analysis. The results reveal a clear spatial pattern in which urban and peri-urban areas exhibit elevated LST values, while vegetated rural zones act as thermal buffers. The NDVI-LST showed a consistent negative correlation (− 0.51 to − 0.33), highlighting the cooling role of vegetation, whereas LST-NDBI showed a consistent strong positive correlation (0.76–0.82), highlighting the warming impact of impervious surfaces. Change detection analysis indicates declining vegetation cover in peri-urban zones and expansion of built-up areas, contributing to outward propagation of thermal hotspots. Although SUHI intensity showed a relative decline over time, this was primarily driven by rising rural temperatures rather than urban cooling, suggesting regional thermal homogenization. The findings emphasize that urban expansion and vegetation loss are significant drivers of thermal stress in rapidly growing tropical cities. This study provides actionable insights for climate-responsive planning by advocating green infrastructure expansion, controlled urban sprawl, and geospatial monitoring frameworks for sustainable urban thermal management.