A system dynamics‐based framework for bioenergy planning in sub‐Saharan Africa: integrating circular bioeconomy and Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies

Energy scarcity remains a persistent challenge in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), where limited access to reliable, affordable, and clean energy constrains socioeconomic development. Biomass resources, including agricultural residues, forest waste, and waste from other biological sources, are widely available, but their use for modern energy generation and their management remain inefficient. In this study, a hybrid framework called system dynamics (SD)–techno‐economic analysis (TEA) was developed to analyze biomass utilization and bioenergy transition pathways in SSA based on circular bioeconomy and Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) resource coordination methods, with Nigeria and South Africa as illustrative case studies. The model was parameterized using secondary data on biomass availability, energy demand, energy conversion efficiency, and technoeconomic parameters from international databases and the published literature. The model was tested through structural verification, calibration, and sensitivity analysis. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 9.8% for biomass utilization in SSA and 11.2% for installed bioenergy capacity in Nigeria. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) installed bioenergy capacity in South Africa was 25 MW. Simulation results indicate that optimized biomass recovery, improved conversion efficiency, and digitally informed resource coordination increased delivered bioenergy services by 12% to 18% while reducing biomass input intensity and improving resource utilization. Comparative analysis shows that Nigeria remained more dependent on traditional biomass, whereas South Africa demonstrated greater potential for integrating circular bioeconomy strategies into modern bioenergy systems. The proposed SD–TEA framework provides a transparent decision‐support tool for evaluating bioenergy transition pathways and supporting evidence‐based energy planning and circular bioeconomy development in SSA.