Climate-driven water stress in the United States is seasonal, regional, and shaped by adaptation

This study quantifies drivers of water use across the food-energy-water nexus and assesses how climate change, population growth, and adaptation may reshape future water scarcity in the United States. Using high frequency water withdrawal data from 2000–2020, we disentangle the effects of climate, hydrology, and socioeconomic factors on public water use, crop irrigation, and cooling for thermoelectric power generation. Future water demands (2040–2070) are estimated using recent climate and socioeconomic projections, representing 1.0 ∘C to 2.9 ∘C warming and population growth ranging from 1% to 44%. Across 28 scenarios, we estimate annual water use changes ranging from -10.7% to +28.9% for public use, +32.1% to +43.6% for crop irrigation, and -27.9% to -19.9% for thermoelectric power cooling, contingent on continued adaptive efforts. Results reveal strong sectoral variation in climate sensitivity, seasonal mismatches between water supply and demand, and shifts in regional water stress under future warming. Climate change and economic activity are reshaping when and where water stress occurs in the United States. This study identifies the drivers and locations of water stress and shows how targeted water management policies can reduce future scarcity.