Strategic Depth or Strategic Liability? Taliban and the Dynamics of Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations

This article aims to explain how Pakistan’s objective of ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan shifted from being regarded as a strategic asset to a strategic liability following the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021. Historically, Pakistan cultivated the Afghan Taliban to fortify its western border, diminish India’s influence in Kabul, and check anti-Pakistan militant groups. Initially, Islamabad viewed the Taliban-led Islamic Emirate’s re-establishment as a chance to keep Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) under control, stabilize the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and guarantee a friendly regime in Kabul. However, these expectations have largely failed, creating new security and diplomatic challenges for Pakistan. The article argues that a number of interrelated reasons have contributed to the worsening of ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The factors encompass the Taliban’s reluctance to curtail the TTP, the ongoing contention regarding the Durand Line, revived aspirations for Pashtunistan, the extensive expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, and the Taliban’s increasing interaction with India. The article concludes that unless ethnic sensitivities are addressed, Afghan sovereignty is respected, and trust is rebuilt through sustained dialogue, relations will remain fragile and marked by recurring cross-border militancy and violence.