Beyond health: loneliness and productivity growth across countries

Objectives: Loneliness is an established risk factor for poor health, yet its macroeconomic consequences remain unclear. We examined whether country-level loneliness is associated with productivity and long-run productivity growth. Methods: We combined 2023 Gallup World Poll data (145,072 respondents from 105 countries) with productivity measures from the Penn World Table. Country-level loneliness prevalence was based on respondents who reported feeling lonely for much of the previous day. Ordinary least squares models estimated associations between loneliness and total factor productivity (TFP), TFP growth, and related outcomes, adjusting for income, age, health problems, urbanization, and region fixed effects. Results: Loneliness was not associated with contemporaneous TFP levels but was consistently linked to lower long-run TFP growth. A one-standard-deviation increase in loneliness was associated with a 0.48-percentage-point lower annual TFP growth rate (0.37 standard deviations). These associations were robust across alternative growth periods. Loneliness showed weak evidence of greater TFP growth volatility but was not associated with human capital, physical capital, or aggregate output growth. Conclusions: Countries with higher loneliness exhibit slower long-run productivity growth but not lower productivity levels. Public Health Implications: Reducing loneliness may improve population health while potentially supporting economic resilience and productivity.