Modeling effects of environmental conditions and hunter activity on Montezuma quail harvest in Arizona

Weather extremes can have dramatic effects on reproduction, survival, and abundance of wildlife populations. Wildlife managers may therefore adjust hunting regulations of game species in an effort to offset consequences of severe weather. In the American Southwest, population dynamics of upland game birds are strongly influenced by interannual variation in precipitation. The reproductive success and survival of Montezuma quail ( Cyrtonyx montezumae ) in southeast Arizona, USA, are considered to be dependent on summer monsoon precipitation, yet few studies have looked beyond summer rainfall to examine other mechanisms that may be driving Montezuma quail population dynamics and harvest. The objectives of this study were to evaluate and identify underlying drivers of spatiotemporal variation in Montezuma quail harvest, hunter effort, and proportion of harvest consisting of juveniles using voluntary wing data from southeast Arizona collected during 1984–2024. We modeled the effects of weather, remotely sensed vegetation indices, and the previous season's harvest metrics (e.g., proportion of harvest consisting of juveniles) on Montezuma quail hunter harvest and effort. Quail harvest had a strong positive association with monsoon precipitation and the proportion of juveniles in the previous year's harvest. Hunters also expended greater effort during years with greater monsoon precipitation. Hunter harvest and effort generally increased over time, whereas the proportion of harvest consisting of juveniles decreased over time. Harvest and hunter effort were not lower during years when daily bag limit was 8 relative to 10 or 15. While resident and non‐resident hunters had similar harvest rates, non‐resident hunter effort strongly increased during our study, resulting in greater total harvest by non‐residents by the end of our study. Our results indicate that environmental conditions and changes in hunter composition and behavior are the primary drivers underlying spatiotemporal variation in Montezuma quail harvest.