IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = LONDON_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.5% to 34.8% (+3.3pp, n=382) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the LONDON_OPEN filter to the current live window would have excluded all 10 trades shown, since none carry timestamps within a typical London open session (e.g., 08:00–10:00 UTC). The three closed wins (USDCHF, USDCAD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD) all occurred between 10:20 and 11:50 +02:00, which is after the London open proper, so the filter would have removed them entirely. This would have flipped the window from 4W/2L (plus 4 open/rejected) to zero trades — a catastrophic PnL loss in this specific sample, not an improvement. The backtest's +3.3pp win-rate gain appears to be an artifact of a different session definition or a narrow sample (n=382) that does not generalize to this live set. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a strict LONDON_OPEN filter risks eliminating high-quality early-morning mome Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: