Hidden nonlinearity in VAIC research: a meta-analytic specification audit of intellectual capital and firm performance in emerging economies

Purpose This paper aims to reassess evidence on value added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) and firm performance in emerging economies by examining the algebraic dependence between human capital efficiency (HCE) and structural capital efficiency (SCE). Design/methodology/approach The study combines analytical derivation with a systematic review and model-level meta-analytic specification audit of 94 articles, published through 31 December 2025, and 644 regression models. The 16-case coefficient-sign audit covers 357 models from 77 articles. A source-validated random-effects synthesis covers 159 paired effects from 32 articles, with article-level dependence adjustments and sensitivity analyses. Findings Because SCE = 1–1/HCE, regressions jointly including original HCE and SCE are nonlinear HCE models, not linear models of independent components. SCE is significant in 201 of 357 classifiable models (56.3%; article-weighted prevalence: 54.8%). At the HCE mean, 22 of 208 comparisons (10.6%) reverse the sign implied by the published HCE coefficient. Dependence-adjusted pooled associations are r = 0.223 for the linear HCE term and r = −0.133 for the hidden reciprocal term, with substantial heterogeneity. Research limitations/implications The evidence base is limited to published articles whose full texts could be retrieved, and incomplete reporting restricts effect-size conversion and marginal-effect diagnostics. The synthesis is therefore diagnostic rather than causal. The screening audit distinguishes explicit exclusions from records with unresolved eligibility and potentially eligible records whose full texts were unavailable. Practical implications VAIC component coefficients should not inform recommendations concerning employees, systems, databases or processes unless the HCE–SCE dependence and implied nonlinear curve are examined. Originality/value Building on the known HCE–SCE dependence, this study documents its prevalence and consequences across emerging-market research and distinguishes construct-validity, specification and managerial interpretation implications.