Putting a time scale on emerging climate change stressors: a Vulnerability Index for Atlantic Ocean marine ecosystem services

Marine ecosystem services underpin human wellbeing and support resilient socio-ecological systems, yet existing vulnerability assessments remain fragmented, often focusing on isolated industries and overlooking the whole-system socio-ecological context. To bridge this gap, we develop a comprehensive Vulnerability Index to assess marine ecosystem service vulnerability to emerging climate stressors in the Atlantic. Using high-resolution ocean simulations and moving beyond traditional long-term projections, we employ the Time of Emergence metric to address actionable decision-making timescales (2–3 decades). We found that all Atlantic marine ecosystem services are projected to be exposed to multiple emerging stressors before 2100, though the sequence and the timing of emergence are highly heterogenous. Overall vulnerability is highest in tropical West Africa due to the early emergence of hypoxia and sea level rise extremes compound by low adaptive capacity. Additional hotspots are found in subpolar and polar regions driven by rapid sea ice retreat and the sensitivities of region-specific habitats alongside a high dependence on marine ecosystems. Coupled with socio-ecological data, we determined which services (provisioning, regulatory and cultural) are most sensitive to potential impacts in each EEZ. We anticipate this index to be a starting point to develop targeted vulnerability indices for specific ecosystem services and regions. Mitigative and adaptive efforts must be multi-scale and tailored to national and local contexts, addressing not only socio-economic differences but also variable climate stressors and their impacts. Uncertainties associated with time series data gaps and indicator aggregation, particularly for island and remote territories, highlight the need for targeted national adaptation.