The future of the sustainable fashion industry in Iran: an analysis of the relationship between material culture and social awareness through causal layered analysis (CLA)

Purpose This study aims to explore possible futures for the sustainable fashion industry in Iran by examining the relationship between material culture and social awareness. It aims to identify the key drivers and underlying forces shaping sustainability transitions in the context of environmental, social, economic and cultural challenges. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a qualitative approach based on causal layered analysis (CLA). Data were collected through semistructured interviews with nine experts in the fashion and apparel industry. Initial themes were identified through thematic analysis and subsequently organized across the four CLA layers: litany, social and structural causes, worldview/discourse and myth/metaphor. Findings The findings reveal that the future of sustainable fashion is shaped by a complex interplay of socio-cultural, economic, technological, environmental and institutional factors. At the litany level, issues such as conspicuous consumption, lifestyle patterns, market-driven production and cultural innovation are particularly prominent. At the level of social and structural causes, factors including media influence, the behavioral patterns of elites and policymakers, challenges in domestic production and consumer agency play critical roles. At the worldview/discourse level, values such as social responsibility, support for domestic production, conscious consumption and environmental sustainability are emphasized. At the deepest layer, cultural metaphors and narratives related to authenticity, responsibility and the balance between tradition and modernity shape both perceptions and practices. Research limitations/implications This study is based on qualitative data from a limited number of experts; therefore, future research could expand the sample size or incorporate quantitative approaches to enhance generalizability. Practical implications The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders and cultural actors seeking to align production systems with social awareness, ethical governance and sustainable practices. Social implications The study highlights the importance of strengthening social awareness, responsible consumption, cultural identity and collective responsibility to support more sustainable and ethical fashion practices in Iran. Originality/value This study applies a futures-oriented methodology (CLA) to the fashion industry in Iran, providing a multilayered understanding of sustainability challenges and offering pathways for long-term transformation.