Evidenced by Indigenous and Western Science: An Arctic Nation Building Project Threatens Caribou Conservation and Inuit Harvesting Rights

Canada's mineral security strategy may conflict with obligations to protect at-risk species and Indigenous rights, as in the proposed Grays Bay Road and Port (GBRP), intended to unlock mineral deposits in Nunavut. We integrated harvesting data from three sources — Government of Nunavut harvest records, a community-based caribou surveillance program, and Indigenous Knowledge participatory mapping — on a hexagonal grid to assess overlap between Inuit harvesting of Dolphin and Union (DU) caribou and the proposed corridor. Hotspot analysis identified three harvesting hotspots. The largest lies directly in the GBRP's path — significant at 99% confidence, harvester-confirmed as most important. One hotspot, supported by only two GPS records, was confirmed only through participatory mapping, illustrating the value of combining both data sources. Beyond habitat loss and barrier effects, the GBRP would extend the sea-ice-dependent shipping season DU caribou migration relies on, a pathway outside regulatory scope. These findings indicate the GBRP will harm caribou conservation, food security, and harvesting rights, mitigation unlikely given comparable failures elsewhere. We recommend immediate federal listing of DU caribou as Endangered, evaluation of the GBRP against these hotspots, and enforceable sea-ice mitigation. Divergence among Inuit rights holders over consent disqualifies the GBRP from streamlined federal review.