Neoliberalism, globalization, and populist voting in Europe: exploring economic and cultural mediators, 1980–2022

Populist parties have reshaped European politics in recent decades, with many scholars linking their rise to the combined effects of neoliberalism and globalization. Our study examines how these processes relate to populist voting through economic and cultural mediators. Using panel data for 29 European countries, from 1980 to 2022, we employ fixed-effect regressions and panel mediation analyses. Using the TIMBRO measure of populist vote share, neoliberalism (measured with the Economic Freedom of the World index) shows no direct association with populism, but indirectly reduces populist support by lowering unemployment. Globalization, captured by the KOF index, indirectly relates to populism by reducing industrial jobs. Additionally, regression analyses showed that contrary to cultural backlash theories, more positive net migration balances are associated with lower support for left populism. However, these associations and indirect effects are not statistically significant when populism is operationalized using an alternative measure of populism. Inequality, trust, and government spending show no consistent effects. The results point to at best conditional nature of the relationship between neoliberalism, globalization and populism, complicating claims that neoliberalism or globalization drive populist backlash.