Digital state capacity in fragile and conflict-affected contexts: cross-national evidence from the World Bank GovTech Maturity Index

Purpose This paper aims to examine the association between World Bank Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS) status and GovTech maturity, including differences across four functional pillars. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses 2025 GovTech Maturity Index (GTMI) data for 197 economies, including 39 FCS economies. Ordinary least squares models adjust for income, population and region. Covariance-aware coefficient contrasts, matching, bounded-response estimation, restricted samples (including survey-based records only), a regional cluster bootstrap and comparison with the UN E-Government Development Index provide complementary checks. Findings The adjusted composite association is −0.187 index points. All four pillar associations are negative, but covariance-aware comparisons do not establish differences between pillars or FCS categories, and matching reverses the ordering of two pillar estimates. The associations hold in the survey-based subsample. Exploratory quantile contrasts are inconclusive. Research limitations/implications Cross-sectional associations do not identify causal effects, investment returns or mechanisms. Index measurement, limited overlap and small FCS subgroups constrain interpretation. Practical implications The findings support examining multiple GovTech functions in country diagnostics. They do not establish an investment ranking or a maturity threshold for intervention. Social implications Service use, inclusion and citizen protection require direct assessment; national maturity scores do not measure distributional benefits. Originality/value The study complements conceptual, clustering and citizen-engagement research with a common-sample comparison of functional GovTech associations and explicit tests of their differences.