A framework for developing an emissions reduction roadmap for new residential buildings in urban Uganda: A demonstrative case study of detached bungalows

Considering the remaining global emissions budget is essential when regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the building sector, especially for emerging economies where the building stock is still undergoing rapid expansion. This study demonstrates a framework for developing an emissions reduction roadmap for detached bungalows in urban Uganda. A planetary boundary-based top-down benchmark for Uganda's housing emissions is derived. A hybrid life cycle GHG emissions assessment is conducted for a bungalow over 50 years. Context-specific emissions targets and reduction pathways are derived, forming the roadmap. The framework explores how a 71.6% emissions reduction requirement could be achieved over a 20-year period to remain below the 2°C warming threshold at an 83% risk-avoidance level. The demonstrative findings suggest that significant emissions reductions could be achieved by lowering embodied GHG emissions through sufficiency-oriented building design and low emissions-intensive construction materials and methods. Regulating dwelling stock growth and designing for optimal occupancy densities are identified as potentially important for achieving meaningful reductions. The framework highlights the importance of improving and scaling up Uganda's traditional earthen and bio-based materials to support reductions in embodied emissions. It further demonstrates the value of expressing assessment results using both floor area-based and per capita-based functional units to better account for house size in sufficiency-oriented design. The demonstrative application also highlights the importance of developing context-specific material life cycle inventory data and integrating emissions reduction strategies into Uganda's building policies to support refinement and implementation of the proposed reduction roadmap.