Exports, Export Composition, and Youth Unemployment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Panel Evidence on Conditional Employment Effects

Youth unemployment in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) remains high despite sustained export expansion, yet youth‐specific evidence on the export–employment nexus is scarce. This study uses a balanced panel of 46 SSA countries over 2000–2023 to examine whether export intensity (exports as a share of gross domestic product) and export composition (manufactured goods as a share of exports) affect youth unemployment, and whether human capital conditions these effects. System generalised method of moments (GMM) is the primary estimator; fixed‐effects, instrumental‐variable and difference‐in‐differences estimates serve as robustness and identification checks. Export intensity has no statistically significant effect. Export composition has a strong negative effect: in the dynamic model, a 10‐percentage‐point rise in the manufactured‐export share is associated with a 1.5‐percentage‐point fall in youth unemployment, against a sample mean of 17.6%. The employment payoff to exports emerges only above an intermediate level of human capital and is stronger in manufacturing‐intensive economies. Commodity‐dependent economies also experienced larger rises in youth unemployment after the 2014–2016 price collapse. Export structure and skills, rather than export volume, therefore determine youth employment, and the paper outlines a sequenced policy agenda. The results remain conditional on observational‐data identifying assumptions.