From pandemic necessity to hybrid norm: modeling the evolving interplay between telework and transit commuting among Canadian workers

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed teleworking from a flexible option to a functional necessity, leading to a sharp decline in transit demand. As Canadian workers transition to hybrid work arrangements, understanding evolving trends in teleworking and transit usage, as well as potential substitution effects between these behaviors, is essential for post-pandemic transportation planning. By employing a multivariate ordered probit model, this study investigates these transitions in teleworking and transit usage frequency before, during (fall 2021), and after (fall 2023) the pandemic across six major Canadian metropolitan areas using two cross-sectional surveys administered in 2021 and 2023. The model incorporates individual and household characteristics, mobility tools, attitudes, and residential location attributes and applies interaction effects across survey years. Findings reveal temporal stability in teleworking and transit usage behaviors and suggest that transit ridership is not substituted by teleworking frequency. After COVID-19, students and eco-friendly commuters showed declining telework adoption and increased transit reliance, while non-permanent residents maintained stable teleworking alongside increased transit captivity. The gender gap in both behaviors diminished. Middle- and higher-income households (annual income above $40,000) exhibited partial substitution (higher teleworking propensity with reduced transit use), while full-time workers and highly educated respondents showed weakening complementarity. From the interaction effects, baby boomers demonstrated a significant reduction in transit usage, and consistently lower teleworking was found among employees in the sales/services and manufacturing/construction/trades sectors. The results suggest strategic coordination between commuting schedules and transit service provision in the post-COVID period to anticipate peak-period congestion.