Assessing the dynamic role of artificial intelligence in driving economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly integrated into economic activity, its implications for development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) require greater empirical attention to country-level differences in productive and institutional capacity. This study examines the relationship between AI and economic growth across 36 SSA countries from 2010 to 2022 using a two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. The results show a positive and significant relationship between AI and economic growth. Mediation analysis indicates that industrial development is an important transmission mechanism, with approximately 23.6% of the total AI–growth effect operating indirectly through industrial development. The results also show that regulatory quality conditions the AI–growth relationship, as the positive interaction between AI and regulatory quality indicates a stronger growth relationship at higher levels of regulatory quality. Heterogeneity analysis reveals no significant AI–growth relationship among low-income countries, whereas the relationship is positive and significant among both lower-middle- and upper-middle-income economies. The study therefore contributes to the emerging macroeconomic literature on AI in SSA by identifying industrial development as a transmission mechanism and regulatory quality as a conditioning factor, while highlighting substantial heterogeneity across income groups. The findings support development strategies that strengthen productive capabilities, institutional quality, and complementary infrastructure alongside AI-related investment.