Comparative evaluation of energy efficiency strategies for green and low-carbon e-commerce logistics operations

This study evaluates five energy-efficiency and low-carbon strategies for e-commerce last-mile logistics using 120 calibrated simulated operating scenarios distributed across five metropolitan regions and three delivery-density classes. Each scenario was evaluated under a conventional internal-combustion baseline (S0), route optimization (S1), consolidation (S2), electrification (S3), and an integrated strategy (S4). Paired scenario-level comparisons, controlled-response analysis, factorial decomposition, grid-carbon break-even analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and robustness tests were applied. Relative to S0, S1 and S2 reduced mean final energy use by 11.07% and 14.58% and route-operational CO₂e emissions by 11.06% and 14.56%, respectively. After accounting for 90% charging efficiency, S3 reduced grid-purchased final energy use by 66.43% and route-operational CO₂e emissions by 61.15%. S4 achieved the strongest central performance, reducing grid-purchased final energy use by 74.13% and route-operational CO₂e emissions by 70.05%, while increasing productivity from 29.34 to 33.81 deliveries per vehicle-hour. Factorial and alternative-combination analyses showed that S4 retained its first-place ranking after removal of the 0.99 integration multiplier and under the examined alternative combination rules. Both electrified strategies remained lower-carbon under average grid factors, although S3 retained this advantage in only 91 of 120 scenarios under nonbaseload factors. Strategy ordering remained unchanged across all ordinary-uncertainty simulations but frequently reversed under deliberately severe implementation stress. The findings support condition-dependent strategy selection but remain limited to calibrated simulated operations and route-level energy and emissions.