Understanding non-localised impacts of bushfires on photovoltaic performance, reliability, and management strategies

Australia is among the world’s most bushfire-prone regions, and the rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased the vulnerability of energy generation to bushfires. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of how bushfire-driven atmospheric aerosols affect PV energy output, module temperature, and degradation. Using reanalysis and satellite observations, we analyse relationships between aerosol optical depth, radiative fire power, and module temperature across south-east Australia over a 20-year period (2003–2024). We then examine two major bushfire events: the 2019–2020 Black Summer bushfire and the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires to quantify their impacts on solar generation. During the Black Summer bushfire, energy generation declined up to 70 % near the bushfire hotspots and ∼40 % in regions more than 150 km away from hotspots. We observe ∼18 % reductions in energy generation near bushfire hotspots and 4–10 % for regions over 100 km from the hotspots during the Black Saturday bushfire. Results reveal modules operated up to 20 °C higher than the climatological threshold during the bushfire, contributing to ∼0.15 % additional thermal degradation of the modules. This study highlights that accounting for bushfire-driven performance losses and temperature-induced degradation is critical to improving the operation and long-term reliability of large-scale solar farms.