Wind Power Forecasting Under Complex Weather: Error Mechanisms, Technical Advances and Challenges

Wind power forecast errors grow markedly under complex weather and constrain secure grid integration. Earlier reviews are organised by method lineage, ramp events, uncertainties or systems, not by the error chain. This review follows the error through four steps, from the meteorological driver field and the station wind field to the conversion relationship and the turbine operating state, and separates meteorological errors from power forecast errors. Along this chain, cold fronts, deep convection, low-level jets and tropical cyclones give the error four distinct temporal forms. A timing shift, a random large deviation, a systematic diurnal bias, and a step change in operating state require different techniques. Where samples are scarce and the statistical relationship is unstable, physical constraints and data-driven methods must be fused. The error that remains divides into a part that technical means can reduce and a part set by a predictability ceiling, which does not fall with better resolution or data. Beyond the error itself, the power ramp follows the weather process rather than the forecast error, and its warning reaches dispatch separately. The gaps lie in the availability of observations and paired samples, and dispatch risk metrics cannot yet be converted into accuracy metrics.