Exploring the Change in Trade Waves: Unveiling Merchant Fleet Performance of Flag States with Entropy-Based TOPSIS Method

The performance of a country’s merchant fleet plays a crucial role in shaping its maritime trade capacity and positioning within global shipping networks. This study evaluates merchant fleet performance using vessels under the flags of the top 20 countries, representing approximately 85% of the world fleet by beneficial ownership. An entropy-based weighting approach is employed to determine the relative importance of three indicators (mean age, total deadweight tonnage (DWT), and number of ships) over the period 2011–23. These weights are subsequently integrated into a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) framework to generate country-level performance rankings. The findings indicate that total DWT consistently emerges as the most influential indicator, followed by fleet size and mean age. Countries such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Indonesia demonstrate sustained high performance, reflecting a broader shift toward Asian dominance in global maritime activity. The results also reveal a notable prevalence of bulk carriers in the fleet structures of high-performing countries. However, this pattern should be interpreted with caution, as it may partly reflect the structural properties of DWT as a capacity-based indicator rather than a direct measure of economic value or strategic preference. Specifically, the findings provide a comparative and data-driven perspective on fleet performance dynamics, offering indicative insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. At the same time, the results should be understood as reflecting a combination of market-driven forces and potential policy influences, without isolating their individual causal effects.