The Prospect and Future of Green Hydrogen in the Continent of Africa

Hydrogen (H2) produced by renewable energy offers a unique opportunity for a green energy transition, especially when dealing with hard-to-abate industries such as fertiliser, steel, and heavy transportation. Having vast renewable energy potential, the continent of Africa is expected to be a green H2 production leader, aiding the world’s clean energy transition. The aim of this study is to examine the possibilities, obstacles, and future of green H2 production in Africa. The study has reviewed Africa’s announced green H2 projects and initiatives and examined the continent’s renewable energy (solar and wind) and its potential impact on electrification and green H2 production. The study reveals that green H2 produced in Africa using solar energy is expected to cost between $6/kg and $10/kg. In arid regions with abundant solar energy but limited water resources, LCOH levels would rise sharply. There is a considerable regional variation in the predicted levelised cost of green H2 produced by wind power across Africa. At a capacity factor of 40% or more, the lowest LCOH costs about $6/kg, while at a factor of 10% or lower, it costs about $26/kg. The total announced investment in green H2 projects across 16 African countries amounts to approximately 293 billion US dollars; this includes 11 projects in very early stages, 4 projects in emerging stages, and 1 project in the exploratory (aspiration) stage. Considering current and expected green H2 technology readiness, cost, global market opportunity, resource availability, and relevant infrastructure, this study proposes a six-stage comprehensive strategy roadmap for green H2 production in Africa. The study also finds that the African continent can achieve more socioeconomic development by focusing on universal electrification and industrialisation instead of primarily focusing on green H2 production by renewable energy for export. Establishing green H2 as a mainstream commodity is a multi-stage process that would unfold over decades, not years. Africa’s immediate focus would be better served by moving a small number of viable pilot projects to FID, while unrealistic production targets should be reset and paused based on market realism.