A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Alcohol Outlet Density and Gun Violence in San Diego

Alcohol outlet density is a modifiable feature of neighborhoods associated with increased violence. However, few studies have examined whether alcohol outlet density is associated with gun violence specifically, and fewer still have done so using rigorous spatial analytic methods. Using Bayesian hierarchical space-time models, we assessed the associations between alcohol outlets and violent crime, gun crime, and gun violent crime at the census block group-level in San Diego from 2021-2023. We found a positive, well-supported association between overall alcohol outlet density and all three types of crime. An increase of ten alcohol outlets per mi 2 was associated with a 3.3% (95% CI: 1.023-1.043) increase in gun violent crime. Compared to restaurants, the percentages of off-premise outlets and bars/pubs both had positive, well-supported associations with all three types of crime. Limiting alcohol outlet density may be a promising public health approach for reducing gun violence.