Impact of ACE submarine cable and national backbone deployment on internet connectivity in Gabon (2012–2024)

This study examines whether, and to what extent, major public digital infrastructure investments, specifically the landing of the Africa Coast to Europe (ACE) submarine cable and the deployment of the 1,900 km Gabon National Backbone (BNG), structurally transformed internet connectivity in Gabon between 2012 and 2024. A question of particular relevance for policymakers in resource-dependent economies seeking to diversify through digital development. Using annual sector data collected from the national regulatory authority (ARCEP Gabon) and the Directorate General for the Development of Digital Networks, the analysis applies an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) framework with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) correction, placebo testing, and ±1year sensitivity analysis to identify structural breaks associated with the 2015 ACE commissioning and the 2018 Gabon National Backbone activation. The findings confirm two major structural breaks in 2015 and 2018, revealing that international bandwidth increased more than twentyfold, average mobile internet prices fell from USD 177 to USD 3.19 per gigabyte, fixed and mobile penetration rates rose substantially, and the share of high-speed subscriptions expanded markedly. These results suggest that open-access infrastructure models, combined with regulatory frameworks promoting competition, are effective levers for accelerating digital transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, and that sustained investment in submarine cable diversification and Gabon National Backbone extension remains a strategic priority. To our knowledge, this is the first quantitative causal study to isolate the impact of the ACE submarine cable on internet connectivity outcomes in Gabon, contributing original empirical evidence to the limited literature on digital infrastructure impacts in Francophone Central Africa.