Comparative Economic Analysis of Diesel Generator vs Solar Microgrid Operation in Khartoum: Annual Cost Assessment Under Extended Grid Outages

This study presents a detailed one-year comparative economic analysis of diesel generator versus low-cost solar microgrid operation for a typical household in Khartoum, Sudan under conditions of prolonged grid failure. Field data and utility reports indicate that grid outages in Khartoum now extend to 16-18 hours per day following the destruction of the Al-Markhiyat substation and damage to the Merowe Dam power station, with national generation falling from 4,400 MW to 1,100 MW. The analysis compares two scenarios for meeting a critical load of 5 kWh per day. Scenario A: 3 kW diesel generator consuming 0.8 liters per hour at current Khartoum diesel price of $1.2 per liter, operating 12 hours daily. Annual fuel cost $4,204, maintenance $600, total $4,804. Scenario B: Proposed solar microgrid with 2x550W PV, 5 kWh LiFePO4 battery, 3 kW hybrid inverter costing $850 CAPEX with $20 annual maintenance. Using IRENA data on 93% battery cost decline and 87% solar PV cost decline since 2010, and UN data of 4,000+ sunshine hours in Sudan, results show solar achieves 82.3% annual savings, payback in 2.1 months, and ten-year net present value of $39,190 savings. Sensitivity analysis shows diesel remains uneconomical even if fuel price drops 50%. The study concludes that continued diesel reliance imposes severe financial burden on households already spending $200 per month, while solar microgrid offers sustainable resilience pathway aligning with World Bank goals for 30% of population without access.