Analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of ecological restoration in the Kubuqi Desert

The health of desert plant life is closely linked to the stability of the local ecological equilibrium, where both human actions and shifts in climate serve as primary influences on environmental security. This research examined the temporal and spatial variations in vegetation NDVI and climatic elements within the Kubuqi Desert between 2000 and 2023. It utilized partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and the geodetector method to uncover the underlying drivers of NDVI dynamics. Additionally, the study applied an ARIMA model to forecast the NDVI trajectory for the upcoming five-year period. The findings indicated that: (1) Plant life in the Kubuqi Desert has experienced substantial enhancement, with more than 80.61% of the region demonstrating a highly notable upward trajectory in NDVI; nonetheless, the general vegetation is projected to display slight anti-persistence going forward. (2) Annual precipitation, annual average high temperature, and annual average low temperature all showed an increasing trend. (3) Land transfer mainly occurred among barren land, cultivated land, and grassland, with the conversion from barren land to grassland accounting for 15.49%. (4) Precipitation and high temperature are key factors affecting NDVI distribution, with a 2–3month lag effect on NDVI. (5) Vegetation NDVI will show an increasing trend over the next five years. This study will provide certain data support for vegetation restoration strategies in the Kubuqi Desert.