Geographic Variations and Determinants of Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes Among Indonesian Adults: Evidence From the 2023 Indonesian Health Survey

Objectives The rising burden of prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Indonesia, along with geographic disparities and age‐related risk patterns, remain inadequately understood. The present study used nationally representative data to examine determinants, geographic variations and age and sex related glycaemic probability patterns. Methods A cross‐sectional study using data from the Indonesian Health Survey 2023 on individuals aged ≥ 15 years ( n = 37,157). Analysis was performed using survey weighting and multinomial logistic regression. Non‐linear age relationships were modelled using generalized additive models (GAM), and regional variations were visualized using choropleth maps. Results A total of 37.4% of respondents were classified as normoglycaemia, 41.6% as prediabetic and 20.9% as having T2D. The main determinants of prediabetes included age ≥ 45 years (aOR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.40–1.57), males (aOR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.44–1.67), obesity (aOR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.37–1.55), hypertension (aOR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.27–1.43) and dyslipidemia (aOR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.24–1.38). The main determinants of T2D were age ≥ 45 years (aOR = 7.13; 95% CI: 5.63–9.04), dyslipidemia (aOR = 2.51; 95% CI: 2.10–3.00), hypertension (aOR = 1.77; 95% CI: 1.50–2.09) and obesity (aOR = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.35–2.01). The GAM showed a non‐linear and accelerated increase in the probability of T2D in older age. Geographically, the burden of dysglycaemia is more concentrated in western Indonesia, indicating regional disparities in risk distribution. Conclusions These findings demonstrate significant geographic variation and key determinants of prediabetes and T2D, supporting region‐specific prevention strategies, risk‐based screening and equitable public health policies to strengthen diabetes prevention and control in Indonesia.