The territorial tectonics: A framework for continuous LCA-driven reconfiguration of biopolymer supply networks

Objective: Bio-based packaging polymers such as polylactic acid (PLA) and polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) are usually sourced through networks fixed by one static life cycle assessment (LCA), although the regional conditions shaping their footprint shift continually. This study proposes Territorial Tectonics, a framework that treats regional supply clusters as plates that reconfigure only when real-time LCA signals breach defined thresholds. Methodology: We coupled a dynamic LCA with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model and tested it on a calibrated four-region network over 40 quarters (2026–2035), comparing static, annual, threshold-triggered, and readiness-constrained scenarios across 150 Monte Carlo draws. Results: Threshold-triggered reconfiguration cut cumulative global warming potential (GWP) by 19.7% against the static baseline for a 1.4% cost premium, or USD 61 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent. It matched annual re-optimization on emissions while costing less in 91% of draws; only 5 of 17 threshold breaches justified structural change, and weak readiness erased about one third of the gain. Value: The study unites economic geography, supply chain viability theory, and real-time LCA in one decision architecture. Implications: Firms gain an auditable rule for deciding when to move, and regional authorities learn that permitting speed governs the achievable environmental value.