Evaluating Overlapping Fuel-Price Interventions: Evidence and Administrative-Data Design from Japan

This preprint examines the evaluation of overlapping fuel subsidies, excise-tax relief and petroleum-reserve releases in Japan. Official price series, policy rules and audit records are used to document observed price transitions and assess which policy contrasts remain identifiable after adjustment for common shocks. The study sets out a target-specific audit of counterfactual benchmarks, residual policy variation, administrative links, treatment timing and additional causal requirements. It proposes pseudonymised records linking claims, net invoices, deliveries, reserve arrivals, inventories and retail transactions. Observed price changes and forecast departures are distinguished from causal effects. No linked administrative microdata were supplied, and no component-specific causal or welfare estimate is claimed. The manuscript is currently undergoing first-round peer review at Energy Policy. It has not been accepted for publication. Replication data and code are available separately:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22066636