Quantum Probability Theory Better Models Human Decision-Making Under Uncertainty — E8 Intelligence Research

FINDING: Human decision-making under uncertainty violates classical probability axioms and is better modeled by quantum probability theory — specifically non-commutative Hilbert space formalism with interference terms. MATH: - Classical (Kolmogorov) probability: P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A∩B); total probability law holds - Quantum probability: P(A) = |⟨ψ|A|ψ⟩|²; events as projection operators; non-commutativity [A,B] ≠ 0 - Interference term: P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) + 2√(P(A)P(B))·cos(θ) — the cos(θ) term has no classical analogue - Order effects: P(A then B) ≠ P(B then A) when projectors don't commute - Disjunction effect (Tversky-Shafir): P(A) > P(A∧B) + P(A∧¬B) — violates sure-thing principle - Social agent model (arXiv 1202.4918): quantum probabilities with entanglement-like correlations between agents; decision probability P_i = Tr(ρ·Π_i) where ρ is a joint density matrix CONNECTION: - The interference term cos(θ) introduces phase angles — the same mathematical structure underlying c Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com