A Conceptual Model of an Integrated System Monitoring and Forecasting of Cross-Border Emergency Situations of the Union State Russia and Belarus

The article proposes a conceptual model of an integrated system for monitoring and forecasting cross-border emergencies of the Union state of Russia and Belarus. The key features of forecasting natural and man-made emergencies, the structure and components of the system, as well as the mechanisms of its functioning are considered. The advantages of integrating and sharing space technologies, manned and unmanned monitoring aircraft and ground systems and complexes based on network-centric control with elements of artificial intelligence to increase the reliability of forecasting and responsiveness to emergency threats of emergency services are shown. The purpose of the study is to develop a conceptual model and principles of functioning of an integrated system for monitoring and forecasting cross–border emergencies, capable of reducing social and economic damage from such events. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is based on the use of statistical analysis and data processing methods, the formation of short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, structural analysis and synthesis of complex systems.