Can the European recycling target for plastic packaging be met? A scenario analysis for Finland

The European Union’s plastic packaging recycling target for 2025 is unlikely to have been met by most member states, so to achieve the more ambitious 55% target for 2030 will require significant changes to existing waste management and recycling practices. This study examines the factors affecting plastic packaging waste recycling and assesses, using 13 waste collection and recycling efficiency scenarios, the conditions under which Finland could meet the 2030 target. The findings indicate that the target is a multidimensional challenge shaped by multiple factors along the plastic value chain. At present, a substantial proportion of packaging waste is incinerated instead of material recovery. Priority should be given to business packaging by substantially improving the separate collection rates, with material recovery from mixed waste streams as a complementary measure. The paper also suggests targeted policies and interventions for improving plastic packaging recycling in Finland and beyond.